Do You Agree With Any Of These 10 Experts?
This is a Post from the Symbol Surfing Blog from Wed, Aug 22, 2018.
I think CNBC did a great job with this expert roundup.
I hope they produce more of these types of videos.
So here is the lineup along with a short quote I felt was important.
- David Rubenstein from The Carlyle Group on July 18, 2018
"I don't see it (a recession) coming."
- Jim Paulson from Leuthold Group on July 24, 2018
"I do think the market is highly valued."
- Joseph LaVorgna from Natixis on July 25, 2018
"The yield curve with one exception in 1966 has basically predicted every recession."
- Stephen Davies from Javelin Wealth Management on July 25, 2018
"certainly the odds are rising in favor of that happening (a recession) during the course of 2019."
- Eric Kuby from North Star Investment Management on August 5, 2018
"I think the trigger could very be higher interest rates."
- James Bullard from St. Louis Federal Reserve on August 6, 2018
"Australia is a country, for example, that has not had a recession in a long time - 25 years or more."
- Jurrien Timmer from Fidelity Investments on August 6, 2018
"If and when the curve inverts, it will be at least a premature signal, let alone may be a false positive."
- David Zeros from Jeffries on August 6, 2018
"I think we swung the pendulum really hard toward regulation, we slowed the economy down." New word? stagulation. Bonus.
- John Taylor from Stanford on August 7, 2018
"but monetary policy is by no means insignificant in this improved economy."
- Byron Wien from Blackstone on August 15, 2018
"I don't think there's any recession in sight."
Overall it seems everyone was bullish on the stock market except for 2 people, Jim Paulson and Stephen Davies.
If you have 5 minutes, I recommend watching the youtube video.
Many of the experts referenced the yield curve flattening.
This simply means if the yield starts to move sideways which could be a warning of a recession.
This is a chart of the US Treasury 10 Year Yield going all the way back to 1988.
The 80's! What a simpler time, with 10% mortgage rates! Yikes!
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