Do You Agree With Any Of These 10 Experts?

This is a Post from the Symbol Surfing Blog from Wed, Aug 22, 2018.

I think CNBC did a great job with this expert roundup.

I hope they produce more of these types of videos.

So here is the lineup along with a short quote I felt was important.

  1. David Rubenstein from The Carlyle Group on July 18, 2018
    "I don't see it (a recession) coming."
  2. Jim Paulson from Leuthold Group on July 24, 2018
    "I do think the market is highly valued."
  3. Joseph LaVorgna from Natixis on July 25, 2018
    "The yield curve with one exception in 1966 has basically predicted every recession."
  4. Stephen Davies from Javelin Wealth Management on July 25, 2018
    "certainly the odds are rising in favor of that happening (a recession) during the course of 2019."
  5. Eric Kuby from North Star Investment Management on August 5, 2018
    "I think the trigger could very be higher interest rates."
  6. James Bullard from St. Louis Federal Reserve on August 6, 2018
    "Australia is a country, for example, that has not had a recession in a long time - 25 years or more."
  7. Jurrien Timmer from Fidelity Investments on August 6, 2018
    "If and when the curve inverts, it will be at least a premature signal, let alone may be a false positive."
  8. David Zeros from Jeffries on August 6, 2018
    "I think we swung the pendulum really hard toward regulation, we slowed the economy down." New word? stagulation. Bonus.
  9. John Taylor from Stanford on August 7, 2018
    "but monetary policy is by no means insignificant in this improved economy."
  10. Byron Wien from Blackstone on August 15, 2018
    "I don't think there's any recession in sight."

Overall it seems everyone was bullish on the stock market except for 2 people, Jim Paulson and Stephen Davies.

If you have 5 minutes, I recommend watching the youtube video.

Many of the experts referenced the yield curve flattening.

This simply means if the yield starts to move sideways which could be a warning of a recession.

This is a chart of the US Treasury 10 Year Yield going all the way back to 1988.

The 80's! What a simpler time, with 10% mortgage rates! Yikes!

Let me know in the comments section!

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